Studies > Forecasting of social and economic processes

Forecasting of social and economic processes

Тип: Нормативний

Кафедра: department of digital economics and business analytics

Навчальний план

СеместрКредитиЗвітність
64Іспит

Лекції

СеместрК-сть годинЛекторГрупа(и)
632Romanych I. B.УФЕ-31с

Лабораторні

СеместрК-сть годинГрупаВикладач(і)
632УФЕ-31сRomanych I. B., Romanych I. B.

Опис курсу

Course Overview

The formation of market mechanisms in Ukraine in recent years has been associated with significant challenges. Organizational forms of enterprise functioning across various industries are changing, while economic and social relations and interactions are becoming increasingly complex. Therefore, in the activities of economists and managers, the emphasis must shift from standard solutions to the ability to respond promptly and appropriately to changes in the business environment and to identify optimal approaches under specific conditions.

The foundation for such an approach to managerial decision-making is economic forecasting, which aims to identify general prospects and patterns of evolution, trends in organizational and structural development, and to ensure a balance between short-term and long-term programs. It is crucial to identify the full range of factors and causes determining the functioning and development of the economic structure under study.

The transformation of the economic forecasting system is one of the key elements of reforms contributing to the effective functioning of enterprises under changing organizational and economic conditions. It should be aimed at fundamental changes in forecasting practice, including the development of the capacity to solve diverse management tasks in conditions of environmental instability through the use of appropriate analytical tools. These tools require proper justification and determination of their scope of application. However, given the increasing complexity of forecasting objects and the dynamic nature of the external environment, the development of such tools is practically impossible without mastering the theoretical foundations of forecasting, which constitute the basis of all management processes.

Subject of the Course

The subject of the course “Forecasting of Socio-Economic Processes” comprises the patterns and trends in the development of socio-economic processes (objects, phenomena) in the past and their projected state in the future, which must be studied and understood, as well as the set of methods and models used for developing socio-economic forecasts.

Purpose of the Course

The purpose of the course “Forecasting of Socio-Economic Processes” is to provide students with theoretical knowledge and practical tools for forecasting socio-economic processes, determining possible future states of socio-economic objects, and analyzing patterns of their development under various conditions.

Object of the Course

The objects of economic forecasting include mass phenomena and processes that are in continuous motion, change, and development; the national economy as a whole, economic sectors, regions, and socially significant spheres of activity; scientific and technological progress and the socio-economic changes in production structure, innovation, and investment driven by it; the dynamics of the market environment and the macroeconomic situation determined by flows of material and financial resources, aggregate demand and aggregate supply; as well as changes in the economic parameters of national development under the influence of various factors, including social, foreign economic, environmental, and military-strategic factors.

Main Objectives

The objective of forecasting socio-economic processes is to identify probable pathways and outcomes of future development of phenomena and processes, as well as to assess indicators characterizing these phenomena and processes in the future. Accordingly, the primary objective of the course “Forecasting of Socio-Economic Processes” is to form students’ understanding of the goals, functions, and methods of forecasting, and to develop practical skills and competencies in applying various forecasting methods under conditions of contemporary transformational processes in the social and economic spheres.

Рекомендована література

Main Sources

  1. Cherniak O.I. (Ed.), Zakharchenko P.V. (Ed.), et al. Current Problems of Forecasting the Development of Socio-Economic Systems: Monograph. Melitopol: Publishing House of the Melitopol City Printing Office, 2019. 383 p.
  2. Burtnyak I.V., Malytska H.P. Forecasting of Economic and Social Processes: Study Guide. 131 p.
  3. Halushchak M.P., Halushchak O.Ya., Kuzhda T.I. Forecasting of Socio-Economic Processes: Study Guide for Economic Specialties. Ternopil: FOP Paliianytsia, 2021. 160 p.
  4. Hrynkevych O., Romanych I., Handziuk M. The impact of legislative initiatives on the behavior of participants in the international postal services market: analysis and forecasting using statistical methods. Economic Theory and Law. No. 2(61). pp. 83–101. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31359/2411-5584-2025-61-2-83
  5. Domaradzka H.S., Hladun T.M., Feshchur R.V. Forecasting and Macroeconomic Planning: Study Guide. Lviv: Magnolia 2006 Publishing House, 2021. 210 p.
  6. Zhukovska O.A. Forecasting of Socio-Economic Processes: Computer Workshop: Study Guide for Bachelor’s Degree Students. Kyiv: Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, 2022. 100 p.
  7. Kichor V.P., Feshchur R.V., Yakymiv A.I., Skvortsov D.I., Vysotskyi A.L. Methods and Models of Economic Forecasting: Study Guide. Lviv: Rastr-7, 2019. 272 p.
  8. Lozovska L.I., Bandorina L.M., Savchuk L.M., Udachyna K.O. Forecasting of Socio-Economic Processes: Study Guide. Dnipro: Ukrainian State University of Science and Technologies, 2022. 146 p.
  9. Shebanina O.V. (Comp.). Forecasting of Socio-Economic Processes: Lecture Notes. Mykolaiv: Mykolaiv National Agrarian University, 2022. 95 p.
  10. Sokhatska O.M., Panasiuk V.M., Rohovska-Ishchuk I.V., Vinnytskyi S.I. Fundamental and Technical Analysis of International Markets. Ternopil: West Ukrainian National University, 2022. 309 p.

Additional Sources

  1. Voronkova V.H. Socio-Economic Forecasting: Study Guide. Kyiv: Profesional, 2004. 288 p.
  2. Hanchuk A.A., Soloviov V.M., Chabanenko D.M. Forecasting Methods: Study Guide. Cherkasy: Brama. Ukraine, 2012. 140 p.
  3. Hapieieva O.M., Dziuba D.V., Halieiev O.S. Macroeconomic forecasting of socio-economic processes under the transformation of Ukraine’s economy. Investments: Practice and Experience. No. 19. pp. 41–47. DOI: 10.32702/2306_6814.2023.19.41
  4. Heiets V.M., Klebanova T.S., Cherniak O.I. Models and Methods of Socio-Economic Forecasting: Textbook. Kharkiv: INZHEK Publishing House, 2005. 396 p.
  5. Hlivenco S.V., Sokolov M.O., Zavgorodnia O.M. Economic Forecasting: Study Guide. Sumy: University Book, 2004. 207 p.
  6. Hrabovetskyi B.Ye. Planning and Economic Forecasting: Study Guide. Vinnytsia: VNTU, 2013. 66 p.
  7. Hrynkevych O.S., Romanych I.B., Handziuk M.A. Resilience of the international postal market to regulatory changes: statistical analysis and forecasts for business. Prospects for Business Development under Martial Law and Post-War Reconstruction of Ukraine: Proceedings of the International Scientific and Practical Conference (Lviv, May 15–16, 2025). Lviv: Ivan Franko National University of Lviv, 2025. pp. 284–288. URL: https://econom.lnu.edu.ua/conf-econ-pidpr
  8. Kataiev S.L., Tkachenko A.M., Voronkova V.H. Planning and Forecasting in Market Conditions: Study Guide for University Students. Kyiv: Profesional, 2006. 608 p.
  9. Klebanova T.S., Kurzenev V.A., Naumov V.M., et al. Forecasting of Socio-Economic Processes: Study Guide for Students of Economic Cybernetics (Full-time Program). Kharkiv: Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics, 2015. 656 p.
  10. Kovalchuk O.Ya. Mathematical Modeling and Forecasting in International Relations: Textbook. Ternopil: TNEU, 2019. 411 p.
  11. Kuliavets V.O. Forecasting of Socio-Economic Processes: Study Guide. Kyiv: Kondor, 2009. 194 p.
  12. Makhanets L.L., Kybich H.P. Forecasting of Socio-Economic Processes: Laboratory Practicum. Chernivtsi: Chernivtsi National University, 2015. 96 p.
  13. Pashuta M.T. Forecasting and Programming of Economic and Social Development: Study Guide. Kyiv: Center for Educational Literature, 2005. 480 p.
  14. Prysienko H.V., Ravikovich Ye.I. Forecasting of Socio-Economic Processes: Study Guide. Kyiv: KNEU, 2005. 378 p.
  15. Pilko A.D. Forecasting of Socio-Economic Processes: Lecture Notes. Ivano-Frankivsk: Suprun V.P., 2011. 83 p.
  16. Romanych I.B. Forecasting the development of the Ukrainian eCommerce market and retrospective characteristics of its key indicators. Digital Transformation of the Financial System of Ukraine and V-4 Countries under European Integration: Proceedings of the IV International Scientific and Practical Internet Conference (Lviv, May 16, 2024). Lviv: LNUP, 2024. pp. 169–173.
  17. Shumska S.S. Macroeconomic Forecasting: Study Guide. Kyiv: Kyiv-Mohyla Academy Publishing House, 2015. 176 p.

Internet Resources

  1. Agency for the Development of Infrastructure of the Stock Market of Ukraine (ARIFRU): official website. URL: https://www.smida.gov.ua/about
  2. All about Japanese candlesticks. URL: https://drukarnia.com.ua/articles/vse-pro-yaponski-svichki-6vin1
  3. State Statistics Service of Ukraine: official website. URL: ukrstat.gov.ua
  4. Yerina A.M. Statistical Modeling and Forecasting. URL: http://www.gmdh.net/articles/theory/StatModeling.pdf
  5. Ministry of Economy of Ukraine: official website. URL: http://www.me.gov.ua/
  6. Pistunov I.M. Educational materials. URL: http://pistunovi.inf.ua/train_aids.html
  7. Technical analysis: history of origin and application area. URL: https://studfile.net/preview/8864120/page:10/#13
  8. How to read and analyze Japanese candlesticks on crypto exchanges. URL: https://incrypted.com/ua/yaponski-svichki-y-kriptotreydingy/

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