Studies > Forecasting of social and economic processes

Forecasting of social and economic processes

Тип: Нормативний

Кафедра: department of digital economics and business analytics

Навчальний план

СеместрКредитиЗвітність
64Іспит

Лекції

СеместрК-сть годинЛекторГрупа(и)
632Romanych I. B.УФЕ-31с

Лабораторні

СеместрК-сть годинГрупаВикладач(і)
632УФЕ-31сRomanych I. B., Romanych I. B.

Опис курсу

The formation of market mechanisms in Ukraine is associated with significant difficulties. The organizational forms of functioning of enterprises in various industries are changing, economic and social ties and relations are becoming more complicated. Therefore, in the activities of managers, the emphasis should be placed not on standard solutions, but on the ability to change the economic situation quickly and correctly and to find an approach that is optimal in specific conditions. The basis for such an approach in making management decisions is economic forecasting, which is designed to identify general prospects and evolutions, trends in organizational and structural development, and to ensure the balance of short-term and long-term programs. At the same time, it is important to be able to identify the entire set of factors and reasons that determine the functioning and development of the economic structure under study. The transformation of the economic forecasting system is one of the important elements of transformations that contribute to the normal functioning of enterprises in changing organizational and economic conditions. It should be aimed at radical transformations in forecasting, which consist in developing the ability to solve a wide variety of management tasks in conditions of instability of the external environment using adequate tools, which require substantiation and establishment of the scope of its use. However, in conditions of complexity of forecasting objects and dynamism of the external environment, the development of such tools is practically impossible without mastering the theoretical foundations of forecasting, which is the fundamental basis of all management processes.

Subject of the academic discipline

The subject of the discipline “Forecasting of Socio-Economic Processes” is the patterns and trends of the development of socio-economic processes (objects, phenomena) in the past and their state in the future, which need to be researched and known; a set of methods and models for developing socio-economic forecasts.

The purpose of the academic discipline

The purpose of studying the discipline “Forecasting of Socio-Economic Processes” is to provide students with theoretical knowledge and practical tools for forecasting socio-economic processes, determining possible states of socio-economic objects in the future, and studying the patterns of their development under various conditions.

Subject of study

The objects of forecasting in economics are mass phenomena and processes that are in continuous motion, change, and development; the national economy as a whole, sectors of the economy, regions, and socially significant areas of activity; scientific and technological progress and socio-economic changes in the structure of production, innovation, and investment caused by it; the dynamics of the market environment, the macroeconomic situation caused by flows of material and financial resources, aggregate demand, aggregate supply, etc.; changes in the economic parameters of the development of the national economy under the influence of various factors (including social, foreign economic, environmental, and military-strategic factors).

Main tasks

The task of forecasting socio-economic processes is to identify probable paths and results of the future development of phenomena and processes, as well as to assess the indicators that characterize these phenomena and processes in the future. Therefore, the main task of the discipline “Forecasting socio-economic processes” is to form in students ideas about the goals, functions and methods of forecasting; acquisition of practical skills and abilities to use various methods to forecast the conditions of modern transformation processes in the social and economic spheres of society.

 

Рекомендована література

Main:

  1. Current problems of forecasting the development of socio-economic systems: monograph / O.I. Chernyak [and 75 others] / edited by O.I.Chernyak, P.V. Zakharchenko. Melitopol: Publishing house of the Melitopol City Printing House, 2019. 383 p.
  2. Burtnyak I.V., Malytska G.P. Forecasting economic and social processes: textbook. 2019. 131 p.
  3. Galushchak M.P., Galushchak O.Ya., Kuzhda T.I. Forecasting socio-economic processes: a textbook for economic specialties. Ternopil: FOP Palyanytsya, 2021. 160 p.
  4. Domaradzka G.S., Gladun T.M., Feschur R.V. Forecasting and macroeconomic planning: a textbook. Lviv: Publishing house “Magnolia 2006”. 2021. 210 p.
  5. Zhukovska O.A. Forecasting socio-economic processes: computer workshop: teaching aids for bachelor’s degree applicants. Kyiv: Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute, 2022. 100 p.
  6. Kichor V.P., Feschur R.V., Yakymiv A.I., Skvortsov D.I., Vysotsky A.L. Methods and models of economic forecasting: a textbook. Lviv: Rastr-7, 2019. 272 p.
  7. Lozovska L.I., Bandorina L.M., Savchuk L.M., Udachyna K.O. Forecasting socio-economic processes: a textbook. Dnipro: UDUNT, 2022. 146 p.
  8. Forecasting socio-economic processes: lecture notes: compiled by Shebanina O.V. et al. Mykolaiv: MNAU, 2022. 95 p.
  9. Romanych I.B. Forecasting the development of the Ukrainian eCommerce market and retrospective characteristics of its main indicators. Digital transformation of the financial system of Ukraine and the V-4 countries in the context of European integration : materials of the IV International Scientific and Practical Internet Conference (Lviv, May 16, 2024). Lviv: LNUP, 2024. pp. 169–173.
  10. Sokhatska O.M., Panasyuk V.M., Rogovska -Ishchuk I.V., Vinnytskyi S.I. Fundamental and technical analysis of international markets. Ternopil: ZUNU, 2022. 309 p.

Additional:

  1. Voronkova V.G. Socio-economic forecasting: a textbook. Kyiv: Professional, 2004. 288 p.
  2. Hanchuk A.A., Solovyov V.M., Chabanenko D.M. Forecasting Methods: Textbook. Cherkasy: Brama. Ukraine, 2012. 140 p.
  3. Gapeeva O.M., Dzyuba D.V., Galeev O.S. Macroeconomic forecasting of socio-economic processes in the context of transformation of the Ukrainian economy. Investments: practice and experience . 2023. No. 19. P. 41–47. DOI: 10.32702/2306_6814.2023.19.41
  4. Geets V.M., Klebanova T.S., Chernyak O.I. Models and methods of socio-economic forecasting: textbook. Kharkiv: Publishing House “INZHEK”, 2005. 396 p.
  5. Glivenko S.V., Sokolov M.O., Zavgorodnya O.M. Economic forecasting: a textbook. Sumy: University Book, 2004. 207 p.
  6. Grabovetskyi B.E. Planning and economic forecasting: a textbook. Vinnytsia: VNTU, 2013. 66 p.
  7. Kataev S.L., Tkachenko A.M., Voronkova V.G. Planning and forecasting in market conditions: a textbook for university students. Kyiv: Professional, 2006. 608 p .
  8. Klebanova T.S., Kurzenev V.A., Naumov V.M. et al. Forecasting socio-economic processes: a textbook for students of the direction of training 6.030502 “Economic Cybernetics” of full-time study. Kharkiv: KhNEU named after S. Kuznets , 2015. 656 p.
  9. Kovalchuk O.Ya. Mathematical modeling and forecasting in international relations: textbook. Ternopil: TNEU, 2019. 411 p.
  10. Kulyavets V.O. Forecasting socio-economic processes: a textbook. Kyiv: Condor, 2009. 194 p.
  11. Makhanets L.L., Kybych G.P. Forecasting socio-economic processes: laboratory practical. Chernivtsi: Chernivtsi National University, 2015. 96 p.
  12. Pashuta M.T. Forecasting and programming of economic and social development: a textbook. Kyiv: Center for Educational Literature, 2005. 480 p.
  13. Prysenko G.V., Ravikovich E.I. Forecasting socio-economic processes: a textbook. Kyiv: KNEU, 2005. 378 p.
  14. Pilko A.D. Forecasting socio-economic processes: lecture notes. Ivano-Frankivsk: Suprun V.P., 2011. 83p.
  15. Forecasting socio-economic processes: methodological recommendations for performing calculation work [compiled by: G.M. Yarovenko, L.P. Perkhun ]. Sumy: State Higher Educational Institution “UABS NBU”, 2012. 30 p.
  16. Shumska S.S. Macroeconomic forecasting: a textbook. Kyiv: Publishing house “Kyiv-Mohyla Academy”, 2015. 176 p.

 

INTERNET SITES

  1. Agency for the Development of the Stock Market Infrastructure of Ukraine (ARIFRU): official website. URL: https://www.smida.gov.ua/about
  2. All about Japanese candles . URL: https://drukarnia.com.ua/articles/vse-pro-yaponski-svichki-6vin1
  3. State Statistics Service of Ukraine: official website. URL: www.ukrstat.gov.ua
  4. Yerina A.M. Statistical modeling and forecasting. URL: http://www.gmdh.net/articles/theory/StatModeling.pdf
  5. Ministry of Economy of Ukraine: official: website. URL: http://www.me.gov.ua/
  6. Textbooks by Pistunov I.M. URL: http://pistunovi.inf.ua/train_aids.html
  7. Technical analysis . History of emergence and scope of technical analysis . URL: https://studfile.net/preview/8864120/page:10/#13
  8. How to read and analyze Japanese candlesticks on the crypto exchange . URL: https://incrypted.com/ua/yaponski-svichki-y-kriptotreydingy/

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